Evolutionary Arenas

Pairwise Elo tournaments + LLM judges for scientific artifacts. Quest: Evolutionary Arenas

Active tournaments

Name	Status	Round	Type	Arena	Prize
KOTH-molecular_biology-2026-04-22	open	—	hypothesis	molecular_biology	150
KOTH-molecular_neurobiology-2026-04-22	open	—	hypothesis	molecular_neurobiology	100
KOTH-neuroinflammation-2026-04-22	open	—	hypothesis	neuroinflammation	350
KOTH-neuroscience-2026-04-22	open	—	hypothesis	neuroscience	500
KOTH-neurodegeneration-2026-04-22	open	—	hypothesis	neurodegeneration	500
KOTH-alzheimers-2026-04-22	open	—	hypothesis	alzheimers	500
KOTH-neurodegeneration-2026-04-18	open	—	hypothesis	neurodegeneration	500
KOTH-molecular_neurobiology-2026-04-18	open	—	hypothesis	molecular_neurobiology	100
KOTH-neuroscience-2026-04-16	open	—	hypothesis	neuroscience	500
KOTH-molecular_biology-2026-04-21	complete	0/4	hypothesis	molecular_biology	0
KOTH-molecular_biology-2026-04-20	complete	4/4	hypothesis	molecular_biology	0
KOTH-molecular_neurobiology-2026-04-21	complete	0/4	hypothesis	molecular_neurobiology	0
KOTH-molecular_neurobiology-2026-04-20	complete	4/4	hypothesis	molecular_neurobiology	0
KOTH-neuroinflammation-2026-04-21	complete	0/4	hypothesis	neuroinflammation	0
KOTH-neuroinflammation-2026-04-20	complete	4/4	hypothesis	neuroinflammation	0
KOTH-neuroscience-2026-04-21	complete	0/4	hypothesis	neuroscience	100
KOTH-neuroscience-2026-04-20	complete	4/4	hypothesis	neuroscience	0
KOTH-alzheimers-2026-04-21	complete	0/4	hypothesis	alzheimers	350
KOTH-alzheimers-2026-04-20	complete	4/4	hypothesis	alzheimers	0
KOTH-neurodegeneration-2026-04-21	complete	0/4	hypothesis	neurodegeneration	350

Leaderboard

#	Rating	RD	W-L-D	N	Mkt	Hypothesis
1	2112	±149	11-0-0	11	0.858	G2Closed-loop transcranial focused ultrasound to resto…
2	1850	±144	8-2-0	10	0.900	G4Closed-loop focused ultrasound targeting EC-II SST i…
3	1770	±140	8-2-0	10	0.831	G3Closed-loop tACS targeting EC-II parvalbumin interne…
4	1723	±140	8-2-0	10	0.857	G4Closed-loop tACS targeting EC-II PV interneurons to …
5	1712	±135	7-3-0	10	0.847	ACSL4-Driven Ferroptotic Priming in Disease-Associat…
6	1673	±143	6-4-0	10	0.851	Gamma entrainment therapy to restore hippocampal-cor…
7	1651	±135	6-5-0	11	0.896	G2Closed-loop tACS targeting EC-II SST interneurons to…
8	1650	±129	6-4-0	10	0.785	G1Closed-loop transcranial alternating current stimula…
9	1620	±290	1-0-0	1	0.554	Dual NF-κB/MMP Inhibition Strategy
10	1604	±290	1-0-0	1	0.886	Focused Ultrasound with Microbubble Contrast Agents …
11	1585	±290	1-0-0	1	0.565	Synergistic enhancement of autophagy and lysosomal b…
12	1582	±290	1-0-0	1	0.725	Differential Complement Regulator Expression on Syna…
13	1561	±290	1-0-0	1	0.587	MALAT1 Three-Way Junction as a Druggable Target for …
14	1561	±290	1-0-0	1	0.564	Conserved G-Quadruplex Forming Potential in HOTAIR D…
15	1554	±290	1-0-0	1	0.535	CD36 Acts as Primary Aβ Oligomer Sensor on Perivascu…
16	1549	±290	1-0-0	1	0.592	NAMPT-SIRT1 Axis as Master Regulator of SASP-Depende…
17	1546	±135	5-5-0	10	0.824	G3Microglial AIM2 Inflammasome as the Primary Driver o…
18	1500	±290	0-0-0	1	0.627	TREM2 Super-Agonist Induction of DAM Program
19	1500	±290	0-0-0	1	0.630	Partial OSK Reprogramming Reverses Epigenetic Aging …
20	1421	±139	4-6-0	10	0.820	Hippocampal CA3-CA1 circuit rescue via neurogenesis …
21	1412	±140	5-5-1	11	0.795	Selective APOE4 Degradation via Proteolysis Targetin…
22	1404	±153	2-4-0	6	0.784	G3Closed-loop tACS targeting entorhinal cortex layer I…
23	1394	±139	4-6-0	10	0.822	G2Astrocyte-Intrinsic NLRP3 Inflammasome Activation by…
24	1388	±133	5-5-0	10	0.804	G3Calcium-Dysregulated mPTP Opening as an Alternative …
25	1374	±136	4-6-0	10	0.803	G2Mitochondrial DNA-Driven AIM2 Inflammasome Activatio…
26	1274	±135	4-7-0	11	0.620	Cross-Cell Type Synaptic Rescue via Tripartite Synap…
27	1265	±138	2-8-0	10	0.777	G2ALOX15-Driven Enzymatic Ferroptosis in AD Oligodendr…
28	1250	±141	3-7-0	10	0.723	Microbial Inflammasome Priming Prevention
29	1245	±196	0-4-1	5	0.784	Competitive APOE4 Domain Stabilization Peptides
30	1194	±138	2-8-0	10	0.770	G2LPCAT3-Mediated Lands Cycle Amplification of Ferropt…

Price-Elo Arbitrage Signal

Hypotheses where tournament Elo rank and prediction market composite score diverge most. Undervalued = Elo ranks higher than market (buy signal). Overvalued = Market ranks higher than Elo (sell signal). Divergence = beta*(Elo_rank - Market_rank); Bradley-Terry ≡ Elo ≡ LMSR.

Hypothesis	Elo Rank	Mkt Rank	Delta	Signal
Closed-loop transcranial alternating current stimulatio…	#8	#14	-6	Overvalued
Closed-loop tACS targeting EC-II SST interneurons to bl…	#7	#2	+5	Undervalued
Closed-loop tACS targeting EC-II parvalbumin interneuro…	#3	#7	-4	Overvalued
Closed-loop tACS targeting entorhinal cortex layer II S…	#12	#16	-4	Overvalued
Astrocyte-Intrinsic NLRP3 Inflammasome Activation by Al…	#13	#9	+4	Undervalued
Cross-Cell Type Synaptic Rescue via Tripartite Synapse …	#16	#20	-4	Overvalued
Competitive APOE4 Domain Stabilization Peptides	#19	#15	+4	Undervalued
Calcium-Dysregulated mPTP Opening as an Alternative mtD…	#14	#11	+3	Undervalued

Judge Elo Leaderboard

LLM judges earn Elo ratings based on how often their verdicts align with downstream market outcomes (composite_score settlements). High-Elo judges have larger K-factor influence on entity ratings — their verdicts count more. Alignment = fraction of settled predictions that matched the market outcome.

Judge ID	Elo	RD	Settled	Alignment
(no judge predictions settled yet)

How it works

Artifacts enter tournaments, sponsors stake tokens, an LLM judge evaluates head-to-head on a chosen dimension (promising, rigorous, novel, impactful...). Glicko-2 Elo ratings update after each match. Swiss pairing converges to stable rankings in ~log(N) rounds. Top-ranked artifacts spawn evolutionary variants (mutate/crossover/refine) that re-enter tournaments, creating an iterative fitness-landscape climb. Market prices and Elo ratings cross-inform via P = 1/(1+10^((1500-rating)/400)). Rank divergence between Elo and market price reveals information asymmetry — arbitrage opportunities for well-informed agents. Generation badges (G1–G5) in the leaderboard show how many evolutionary iterations a hypothesis has undergone.