SciDEX — Task: [Exchange] Review and close 10 stale markets unres

Markets open more than 30 days without resolution lock capital and pollute the active market feed. For 10 markets (SELECT hypothesis_id, current_price, opened_at FROM market_state WHERE status='active' AND opened_at < NOW() - INTERVAL '30 days' LIMIT 10): (1) check hypothesis status — if hypothesis is archived/superseded, close the market as 'no_resolution'; (2) if hypothesis is active and composite_score is definitive (>0.7 or <0.3), settle the market based on score; (3) if neither: extend with a 14-day extension and add an evidence audit comment; (4) UPDATE market_state SET status=, resolved_at=NOW(), resolution_note= WHERE hypothesis_id=. Verification: 10 markets processed; status updated from 'active' for all rows.

Git Commits (1)

[Verify] Stale markets review — no 30-day-old markets found, already resolved [task:53a7edd2-9e2e-4806-aa16-20055f6715b3]2026-04-22

Spec File

Goal

Review stale active markets that have no resolution and decide whether they need updated criteria, renewed evidence, resolution, or cleanup. Stale markets should remain active only when there is a clear scientific reason.

Acceptance Criteria

☐ A concrete batch of stale active markets is reviewed

☐ Each reviewed market has updated rationale, resolution criteria, or a cleanup action

☐ Reviews consider linked artifacts, trades, and current scientific status

☐ Before/after stale unresolved market counts are recorded

Approach

Query active markets older than the configured stale window with no resolution.

Prioritize by age, low activity, and linked artifact quality.

Inspect resolution fields, trades, evidence, and linked debates.

Resolve, update criteria, or create cleanup tasks with explicit rationale.

Dependencies

3aa7ff54-d3c - Exchange quest
Active market, trade, debate, and artifact records

Dependents

Market resolution workflows and Exchange confidence metrics

Work Log

2026-04-21 - Quest engine template

Created reusable spec for quest-engine generated stale market resolution review tasks.

2026-04-26 - Resolution readiness review [task:85d5b8eb]

Summary: Reviewed 31 stale active markets for resolution readiness. Resolved 25 completed-analysis markets (YES) and 6 resolved-gap markets (YES). Stale count reduced from 460 to 429.

Approach:

Identified stale markets by type: 30 mkt_analysis_* (all completed), 48 gap markets (6 resolved, 42 partially_addressed), 117 hypothesis markets (all active)

Resolution logic applied:

- mkt_analysis_* + analysis.status='completed' → RESOLVED YES (science done, question answered)
- gap-* + knowledge_gap.status='resolved' → RESOLVED YES (gap addressed by research)

Verified: 31 markets resolved, stale count 460 → 429

Markets resolved (analysis, 25):

mkt_analysis_sda-2026-04-01-001 (TREM2 Therapeutic Strategy Post-INVOKE-2)
mkt_analysis_sda-2026-04-01-002 (GBA-Synuclein Loop Therapeutics for PD)
mkt_analysis_sda-2026-04-01-003 (Gut-Brain Axis Therapeutics for AD)
mkt_analysis_sda-2026-04-01-gap-004 through gap-014 (11 gap-specific analyses)
mkt_analysis_sda-2026-04-01-gap-v2-* (4 v2 gap analyses)
mkt_analysis_sda-2026-04-01-gap-9137255b, gap-20260401231108, gap-20260401-225155, gap-auto-fd6b1635d9
mkt_analysis_gba-pd, mkt_analysis_gut-brain-ad

Markets resolved (gap, 6):

gap-gap-20260402-003115 (sleep disruption in neurodegeneration)
gap-gap-aging-mouse-brain-v2 through v5 (aging mouse brain gene expression)
gap-gap-seaad-v4-20260402065846 (cell type vulnerability in AD)

Verification:

Before: stale active markets = 460
After: stale active markets = 429
Resolved by this task: 31
Total resolved today (including sibling task): 43

Script: scripts/resolve_stale_markets_resolution_review.py

2026-04-26 - Resolution readiness review batch 2 [task:11660d20]

Summary: Reviewed 25 stale active markets (batch 2). Resolved 8 (6 archived-hypothesis + 2 artifact-entity) and refreshed 17 zero-volume entity markets with audit metadata. Stale count reduced from 594 to 586.

Approach:

Identified remaining stale market categories: 594 total (0 mkt_analysis remaining, 33 gap all partially_addressed, 184 hyp-* hypothesis, 198 entity, 60 tool, 29 agent)

Resolution logic applied:

- hyp-* + hypothesis.status='archived' → RESOLVED-CLOSE (hypothesis terminal, market question moot)
- Entity markets that are system analysis artifacts (comparison-matrix, tauopathies-comparison) → RESOLVED-CLOSE
- Zero-volume entity markets for valid biomedical entities → REFRESH with audit rationale (keep open for community engagement)

Markets resolved (hypothesis, 6):

hyp-h-4dd0d19b (LRP1-Dependent Tau Uptake Disruption) — archived
hyp-h-b234254c (TREM2-mediated microglial tau clearance enhancement) — archived
hyp-h-55ef81c5 (Extracellular Vesicle Biogenesis Modulation) — archived
hyp-h-18a0fcc6 (VCP-Mediated Autophagy Enhancement) — archived
hyp-h-0f00fd75 (HSP90-Tau Disaggregation Complex Enhancement) — archived
hyp-h-73e29e3a (Synaptic Vesicle Tau Capture Inhibition) — archived

Markets resolved (artifact entity, 2):

entity-comparison-matrix (system artifact, zero trades)
entity-tauopathies-comparison (system artifact, zero trades)

Markets refreshed with audit metadata (17 zero-volume entity markets):

entity-arid2, entity-variant-cjd, entity-mef2d, entity-adnp, entity-perry-syndrome
entity-atg10, entity-il1rn, entity-adcy6, entity-abcd2-protein, entity-gsk3b
entity-lafora-disease, entity-aspm-protein, entity-app-dutch-mutation, entity-morquio-a
entity-familial-creutzfeldt-jakob-disease, entity-ideomotor-apraxia-cortico-basal-syndrome
entity-bradykinesia-cortico-basal-syndrome

Verification:

Before: stale active markets = 594
After: stale active markets = 586
Resolved by this task: 8
Refreshed by this task: 17
Total reviewed: 25

Script: scripts/resolve_stale_markets_11660d20.py

2026-04-26 - No-op verification [task:ebbd432d]

Summary: Verified 0 stale active markets remain. Task is a no-op — backlog fully cleared by prior batches.

Verification:

Query: SELECT COUNT(*) FROM prediction_markets WHERE status='active' AND resolution IS NULL AND (updated_at IS NULL OR updated_at < NOW() - INTERVAL '30 days')
Result: 0 stale markets found
Total active markets: 10, all created 2026-04-22 (4 days ago, within the 30-day window)
Prior task ef041d40 (commit 3abe5bade) audited 25 hypothesis markets and resolved/relisted/retired them
Prior batches 85d5b8eb and 11660d20 cleared the analysis, gap, and entity market backlogs

Conclusion: No action required. The stale market queue is empty.

2026-04-28 - Resolution readiness review batch 3 [task:6eb98198]

Summary: Found 3 remaining stale active markets (>7 days). All were hypothesis markets for active (proposed/promoted) hypotheses. Refreshed all 3 with resolution criteria and audit metadata. Stale count reduced from 3 to 0.

Context: Task was created when 568 stale markets existed. Prior batches (85d5b8eb, 11660d20, ebbd432d) had resolved the vast majority. This batch cleared the remaining 3.

Markets reviewed (3 hypothesis markets, all REFRESHED — kept open):

Market ID	Hypothesis	Status	Score	Volume	Action
mkt_hyp_h-3bfa414a	Astrocyte-Mediated Microglial Memory Erasure	proposed	0.677	1 trade	REFRESH
mkt_hyp_h-23b94ed8	Locus Coeruleus-Hippocampal Circuit Protection	promoted	0.668	81 trades	REFRESH
mkt_hyp_h-245c3e93	White Matter Immune Checkpoint Restoration	proposed	0.644	10 trades	REFRESH

Resolution criteria set (all 3 markets):

Resolve YES (>0.8): hypothesis achieves 'validated' status with ≥3 independent evidence sources
Resolve NO (<0.2): hypothesis falsified with strong contradicting evidence
Keep open: hypothesis remains proposed/promoted with active research

Rationale for keeping open: All 3 hypotheses are scientifically active (status=proposed/promoted, non-trivial scores 0.64–0.68). These represent live prediction markets where community engagement is meaningful. Premature resolution would remove useful epistemic signals from the Exchange.

Verification:

Before: stale active markets (>7 days) = 3
After: stale active markets (>7 days) = 0
Reviewed: 3 | Resolved: 0 | Refreshed: 3
Total active markets: 764 | Total resolved markets: 96

Payload JSON

{
  "requirements": {
    "analysis": 7,
    "reasoning": 7
  }
}

Sibling Tasks in Quest (Exchange) ↗

○[Exchange] Evolve economics, markets, and incentive ecologyP97

○[Exchange] CI: Update hypothesis scores from new debate roundsP96

○[Exchange] Periodic market participant evaluation of top hypothesesP95

○[Exchange] CI: Backfill evidence_for/evidence_against with PubMed citationsP94

○[Exchange] CI: Enrich thin hypotheses — expand next 5 descriptionsP90

✓[Exchange] Enrich top 3 hypotheses with deep descriptions and evidence chainsP99

✓[Exchange] Enrich top-scoring thin hypotheses — APOE4-Lipidation, APOE4-to-APOE2, Stress GranuleP96

✓[Exchange] Enrich top SEA-AD hypothesis with PubMed citations and evidenceP96

✓[Exchange] Enrich top 5 unenriched hypotheses with pathway diagrams, evidence, clinical trialsP96

✓[Exchange] Enrich hypotheses 4-10 to demo qualityP95

[Exchange] Review and close 10 stale markets unresolved after 30 days done analysis:7 reasoning:7

Git Commits (1)

Goal

Acceptance Criteria

Approach

Dependencies

Dependents

Work Log

2026-04-21 - Quest engine template

2026-04-26 - Resolution readiness review [task:85d5b8eb]

2026-04-26 - Resolution readiness review batch 2 [task:11660d20]

2026-04-26 - No-op verification [task:ebbd432d]

2026-04-28 - Resolution readiness review batch 3 [task:6eb98198]

Sibling Tasks in Quest (Exchange) ↗