[Exchange] Prediction market resolution engine — resolve mature markets with evidence-based verdicts done

← Exchange
Build a prediction market resolution engine for SciDEX's 84 open prediction markets (0 resolved as of 2026-04-29). Market resolution is the closing step of Exchange's core loop: Hypothesis→Debate→Score→Market→Resolution→Learning signal. Without resolution, markets are decorative and produce no feedback. Steps: (1) inspect prediction_markets schema (resolved_at, resolution, resolution_date columns — all NULL); (2) build scripts/resolve_prediction_markets.py that gathers evidence per market: debate_sessions for the linked hypothesis (majority verdict weighted by quality_score), hypotheses.evidence_for/against, kg_edges; (3) apply resolution criteria: YES if debate majority positive AND evidence_for > evidence_against*2; NO if debate majority negative OR evidence_against > evidence_for*3; AMBIGUOUS otherwise; SKIP if fewer than 2 data sources; (4) add resolution_evidence JSONB column if missing via migration; (5) resolve ≥20 markets and write resolved_at, resolution, resolution_evidence; (6) run on eligible markets (resolution_date past or composite_score>0.8). Read spec: docs/planning/specs/exchange_market_resolution_engine_spec.md. Cap at 20 markets per run. Do NOT modify yes_prob/no_prob pricing. Requires ≥2 evidence sources per resolution.

Git Commits (5)

Squash merge: orchestra/task/314cc632-prediction-market-resolution-engine-reso (3 commits) (#1271)2026-04-28
Squash merge: orchestra/task/314cc632-prediction-market-resolution-engine-reso (3 commits) (#1271)2026-04-28
[Exchange] Enforce resolver run cap [task:314cc632-cfca-4ddd-a8e3-c7d1bc77bd93]2026-04-28
[Exchange] Update spec work log — iteration 1 complete [task:314cc632-cfca-4ddd-a8e3-c7d1bc77bd93]2026-04-28
[Exchange] Add prediction market resolution engine; resolve 23 markets [task:314cc632-cfca-4ddd-a8e3-c7d1bc77bd93]2026-04-28
Payload JSON
{
  "completion_shas": [
    "535106909"
  ],
  "completion_shas_checked_at": ""
}

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Task Dependencies

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