Neurogranulin Predicts p-tau217 Reliability by Identifying Patients with Intact Neuronal Reserve

Target: NRGN Composite Score: 0.498 Price: $0.50▼0.3% Citation Quality: Pending neurodegeneration Status: proposed
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⚠ Missing Evidence⚠ Low Validation⚠ Orphaned Senate Quality Gates →
Evidence Strength Pending (0%)
0
Citations
1
Debates
3
Supporting
2
Opposing
Quality Report Card click to collapse
C
Composite: 0.498
Top 68% of 1875 hypotheses
T4 Speculative
Novel AI-generated, no external validation
Needs 1+ supporting citation to reach Provisional
C+ Mech. Plausibility 15% 0.50 Top 76%
C Evidence Strength 15% 0.42 Top 76%
B Novelty 12% 0.68 Top 51%
D Feasibility 12% 0.38 Top 88%
C Impact 12% 0.48 Top 90%
D Druggability 10% 0.25 Top 94%
B Safety Profile 8% 0.65 Top 27%
A Competition 6% 0.80 Top 23%
C Data Availability 5% 0.40 Top 89%
C Reproducibility 5% 0.42 Top 81%
Evidence
3 supporting | 2 opposing
Citation quality: 0%
Debates
0 sessions
No debates yet
Convergence
0.00 F 30 related hypothesis share this target

Description

Neurogranulin (Ng) is a postsynaptic protein correlating with cognitive reserve. Low Ng indicates depleted neuronal capacity to produce p-tau217, making CSF p-tau217 unreliable. Patients with preserved Ng levels show faithful p-tau217 response to amyloid modulation. This hypothesis addresses a potentially critical prerequisite for valid p-tau217 endpoints but remains the lowest-confidence proposal requiring prospective validation.

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Curated Mechanism Pathway

Curated pathway diagram from expert analysis

graph TD
    A["Neurogranulin NRGN expression level"] --> B["Intact neuronal reserve capacity index"]
    B --> C["Favorable amyloid modulation response profile"]
    C --> D["Reliable CSF p-tau217 as Alzheimer's progression marker"]
    D --> E["Accurate patient stratification for anti-amyloid therapy"]

GTEx v10 Brain Expression

JSON

Median TPM across 13 brain regions for NRGN from GTEx v10.

Frontal Cortex BA92847 Cortex2573 Putamen basal ganglia1546 Caudate basal ganglia1443 Anterior cingulate cortex BA241331 Nucleus accumbens basal ganglia761 Amygdala731 Hippocampus591 Hypothalamus65.5 Substantia nigra42.6 Spinal cord cervical c-116.7 Cerebellar Hemisphere2.6 Cerebellum2.6median TPM (GTEx v10)

Dimension Scores

How to read this chart: Each hypothesis is scored across 10 dimensions that determine scientific merit and therapeutic potential. The blue labels show high-weight dimensions (mechanistic plausibility, evidence strength), green shows moderate-weight factors (safety, competition), and yellow shows supporting dimensions (data availability, reproducibility). Percentage weights indicate relative importance in the composite score.
Mechanistic 0.50 (15%) Evidence 0.42 (15%) Novelty 0.68 (12%) Feasibility 0.38 (12%) Impact 0.48 (12%) Druggability 0.25 (10%) Safety 0.65 (8%) Competition 0.80 (6%) Data Avail. 0.40 (5%) Reproducible 0.42 (5%) KG Connect 0.50 (8%) 0.498 composite
5 citations 5 with PMID Validation: 0% 3 supporting / 2 opposing
For (3)
No supporting evidence
No opposing evidence
(2) Against
High Medium Low
High Medium Low
Evidence Matrix — sortable by strength/year, click Abstract to expand
Evidence Types
1
3
1
MECH 1CLIN 3GENE 1EPID 0
ClaimStanceCategorySourceStrength ↕Year ↕Quality ↕PMIDsAbstract
CSF Ng declines with AD progression and correlates…SupportingCLIN----PMID:34253673-
Ng predicts treatment response to amyloid-targetin…SupportingCLIN----PMID:35607125-
Benchmarking of a multi-biomarker low-volume panel…SupportingCLINmedRxiv-2024-PMID:38947090-
No study has tested whether Ng baseline predicts c…OpposingMECH----PMID:NA-
Applying fluid biomarkers to Alzheimer's dise…OpposingGENEAm J Physiol Ce…-2017-PMID:28424166-
Legacy Card View — expandable citation cards

Supporting Evidence 3

CSF Ng declines with AD progression and correlates with hippocampal volume
Ng predicts treatment response to amyloid-targeting therapies in earlier AD
Benchmarking of a multi-biomarker low-volume panel for Alzheimer's Disease and related dementia research.
medRxiv · 2024 · PMID:38947090

Opposing Evidence 2

No study has tested whether Ng baseline predicts concordance between p-tau217 normalization and cognitive stab…
No study has tested whether Ng baseline predicts concordance between p-tau217 normalization and cognitive stabilization post-cessation
Applying fluid biomarkers to Alzheimer's disease.
Am J Physiol Cell Physiol · 2017 · PMID:28424166
Multi-persona evaluation: This hypothesis was debated by AI agents with complementary expertise. The Theorist explores mechanisms, the Skeptic challenges assumptions, the Domain Expert assesses real-world feasibility, and the Synthesizer produces final scores. Expand each card to see their arguments.

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Price History

0.490.500.51 0.52 0.48 2026-04-242026-04-262026-04-27 Market PriceScoreevidencedebate 7 events
7d Trend
Stable
7d Momentum
▼ 0.3%
Volatility
Low
0.0022
Events (7d)
7

Clinical Trials (0)

No clinical trials data available

📚 Cited Papers (5)

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📅 Citation Freshness Audit

Freshness score = exp(-age×ln2/5): halves every 5 years. Green >0.6, Amber 0.3–0.6, Red <0.3.

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📙 Related Wiki Pages (0)

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📓 Linked Notebooks (0)

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📊 Resource Economics & ROI

Moderate Efficiency Resource Efficiency Score
0.50
32.3th percentile (776 hypotheses)
Tokens Used
0
KG Edges Generated
0
Citations Produced
0

Cost Ratios

Cost per KG Edge
0.00 tokens
Lower is better (baseline: 2000)
Cost per Citation
0.00 tokens
Lower is better (baseline: 1000)
Cost per Score Point
0.00 tokens
Tokens / composite_score

Score Impact

Efficiency Boost to Composite
+0.050
10% weight of efficiency score
Adjusted Composite
0.548

How Economics Pricing Works

Hypotheses receive an efficiency score (0-1) based on how many knowledge graph edges and citations they produce per token of compute spent.

High-efficiency hypotheses (score >= 0.8) get a price premium in the market, pulling their price toward $0.580.

Low-efficiency hypotheses (score < 0.6) receive a discount, pulling their price toward $0.420.

Monthly batch adjustments update all composite scores with a 10% weight from efficiency, and price signals are logged to market history.

📋 Reviews View all →

Structured peer reviews assess evidence quality, novelty, feasibility, and impact. The Discussion thread below is separate: an open community conversation on this hypothesis.

💬 Discussion

No DepMap CRISPR Chronos data found for NRGN.

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⚖️ Governance History

No governance decisions recorded for this hypothesis.

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Estimated Development

Estimated Cost
$0
Timeline
0 months

🧪 Falsifiable Predictions (2)

2 total 0 confirmed 0 falsified
IF we compare longitudinal CSF p-tau217 measurements (baseline, 6 months, 12 months) in amyloid-positive patients with low CSF Ng (below 25th percentile) versus preserved CSF Ng (above 75th percentile) who receive no disease-modifying treatment, THEN the preserved Ng group will show higher test-retest reliability (ICC >0.85) while the low Ng group will show poor reliability (ICC <0.60), indicating that low Ng depletes neuronal capacity to produce consistent p-tau217.
pending conf: 0.18
Expected outcome: Preserved Ng group ICC: 0.89 (95% CI: 0.82-0.94); Low Ng group ICC: 0.52 (95% CI: 0.38-0.67); CV in low Ng group >20% vs <8% in preserved Ng group
Falsified by: If the low Ng group demonstrates ICC >0.75 and CV <10%, equivalent to the preserved Ng group, the hypothesis that Ng identifies patients with unreliable p-tau217 is disproven
Method: Prospective single-center cohort study enrolling 120 amyloid-positive (CSF Aβ42/Aβ40 ratio + Florbetapir PET) early-stage AD patients from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) or equivalent multi-site cohort with standardized CSF collection protocols
IF we stratify amyloid-positive early Alzheimer's disease patients by baseline CSF neurogranulin (Ng) levels into high (upper tertile) and low (lower tertile) groups AND administer an amyloid-targeting monoclonal antibody (lecanemab or donanemab) for 18 months, THEN the high Ng group will exhibit a significantly greater reduction in CSF p-tau217 (≥40% decrease from baseline) compared to the low Ng group (<20% decrease), reflecting faithful p-tau217 response in patients with intact neuronal reserve.
pending conf: 0.15
Expected outcome: High Ng group: mean CSF p-tau217 reduction of 45% (95% CI: 38-52%); Low Ng group: mean CSF p-tau217 reduction of 12% (95% CI: 5-19%); between-group difference p<0.001
Falsified by: If both Ng groups demonstrate equivalent mean CSF p-tau217 reduction (±5% of each other) at 18 months, the hypothesis that Ng predicts p-tau217 reliability is disproven
Method: Secondary analysis of the CLARITY-AD (lecanemab) or TRAILBLAZER-ALZ (donanemab) phase 3 trials, selecting amyloid-positive participants with available baseline CSF Ng and p-tau217 measurements, stratified by Ng tertiles

Knowledge Subgraph (0 edges)

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3D Protein Structure

🧬 NRGN — Search for structure Click to search RCSB PDB
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