Goal
Add real counter-evidence review to active hypotheses whose evidence_against field is empty. This keeps confidence scores, debates, and markets from becoming one-sided summaries of support only.
Acceptance Criteria
☐ A concrete batch of active hypotheses gains evidence_against entries or documented no-counterevidence rationale
☐ Each entry includes PMID, DOI, dataset, debate, or explicit search provenance
☐ No placeholder or fabricated counter-evidence is added
☐ Before/after missing evidence_against counts are recorded
Approach
Select active hypotheses with empty evidence_against, prioritizing high-confidence or market-relevant rows.
Search linked papers, PubMed, debates, datasets, and KG contradiction edges for real counter-evidence.
Persist concise counter-evidence or an auditable no-counterevidence rationale through the standard PostgreSQL path.
Verify updated rows and inspect a sample for provenance quality.Dependencies
c488a683-47f - Agora quest
Dependents
- Debate quality, confidence calibration, and Exchange pricing
Work Log
2026-04-21 - Quest engine template
- Created reusable spec for quest-engine generated hypothesis counter-evidence tasks.
2026-04-21 18:57 UTC — task cd74e4ec-f04e-49c5-9cc5-0c6cb1fd4e39
- Started obsolescence check and read the quest predicate in
quest_engine.py.
- Initial strict
status='active' query returned 0 rows because current hypothesis statuses are proposed, promoted, debated, and archived; the quest predicate uses COALESCE(status, '') <> 'archived'.
- Before count using the quest predicate: 10 non-archived hypotheses had empty
evidence_against; all 10 were duplicate proposed Test: TREM2 enhances amyloid clearance rows.
- Plan: add one reviewed TREM2 counter-evidence bundle to those 10 rows through
scidex.core.database.get_db(), using PubMed-backed citations and explicit search provenance.
- Updated 10 rows:
hyp_test_f358dd4b, hyp_test_656bc496, hyp_test_d2990401, hyp_test_c4cd97c6, hyp_test_c201b8c0, hyp_test_852af3c6, hyp_test_490ced0b, hyp_test_0215075b, hyp_test_2750d4e9, hyp_test_f15ab6d9.
- Counter-evidence bundle cites PMID 29073081 / DOI 10.1073/pnas.1710311114, PMID 37371067 / DOI 10.3390/cells12121597, and PMID 29859094 / DOI 10.1186/s13024-018-0262-8, with PubMed/web search query provenance on each item.
- After count using the quest predicate: 0 non-archived hypotheses have empty
evidence_against; verification query reported 722/722 non-archived hypotheses with non-empty evidence-against arrays.
- System check:
scidex status shows PostgreSQL reachable, API/nginx/linkcheck/Neo4j active; agent and bridge were activating, forge-improve inactive.