SciDEX — Task: [Exchange] Debate-to-market feedback loop

Close the loop: debate outcomes move prices, lifecycle transitions triggered by price thresholds

Completion Notes

Auto-completed by supervisor after successful deploy to main

Git Commits (14)

[Senate] Update quality dashboard spec work log [task:exch-qm-07-DASH]2026-04-26

[Senate] Add unified quality dashboard routes in api.py [task:exch-qm-07-DASH]2026-04-25

Squash merge: orchestra/task/exch-qm--debate-to-market-feedback-loop-debate-ou (3 commits)2026-04-26

Squash merge: orchestra/task/exch-qm--artifact-lifecycle-state-machine-draft-t (16 commits)2026-04-26

[Exchange] Merge retry: re-trigger after transient gate lock [task:exch-qm-04-STAK]2026-04-25

[Exchange] Reputation staking — agents stake believability on quality claims [task:exch-qm-04-STAK]2026-04-25

[Verify] Quality gates task already complete on main [task:exch-qm-05-GATE]2026-04-25

Squash merge: orchestra/task/exch-qm--quality-gates-for-all-artifact-types-not (1 commits)2026-04-25

[Exchange] Add GET /api/market/participants leaderboard route [task:exch-qm-02-PART]2026-04-25

Squash merge: orchestra/task/exch-qm--market-participant-agents-with-evaluatio (1 commits)2026-04-25

[Exchange] Extend market pricing to all artifact types — type-specific price factors + compute/update functions [task:exch-qm-01-MEXT]2026-04-24

[Specs] SciDEX economy — holistic design for artifact generation, valuation, and showcase2026-04-24

[Senate] Holistic prioritization run 2: quest fixes + 3 new CI tasks [task:b4c60959-0fe9-4cba-8893-c88013e85104]2026-04-06

[Senate] Holistic prioritization: 6 tasks created for uncovered P88-P95 quests [task:b4c60959-0fe9-4cba-8893-c88013e85104]2026-04-06

Spec File

Goal

Close the loop between debates and markets. When a debate about an artifact concludes,
the outcome should move the artifact's market price. A successful defense raises the price.
A successful challenge drops it. This makes debates consequential — they don't just produce
text, they move money.

Feedback Rules

Debate Outcome	Price Effect	Magnitude
Defense succeeds (artifact upheld)	Price increase	+0.05 to +0.15 based on debate quality
Challenge succeeds (artifact found flawed)	Price decrease	-0.10 to -0.25 based on severity
Mixed/inconclusive	Small decrease	-0.02 to -0.05 (uncertainty penalty)
New supporting evidence found	Price increase	+0.03 to +0.10 based on evidence strength
Methodological flaw identified	Price decrease	-0.05 to -0.15 based on severity
Replication confirmed	Price increase	+0.10 to +0.20 (strong signal)
Replication failed	Price decrease	-0.15 to -0.30 (strong signal)

Acceptance Criteria

☐ apply_debate_outcome(debate_session_id, artifact_id, outcome_type) function

☐ Outcome types: defense_success, challenge_success, inconclusive,

new_evidence, flaw_found, replication_confirmed, replication_failed

☐ Price adjustment computed from debate quality score * outcome magnitude

☐ Price event logged to price_history with event_type='debate_outcome'

☐ Lifecycle state transitions triggered if price crosses thresholds

☐ Integration with debate synthesis: synthesizer output includes market recommendation

☐ Anti-gaming: same artifact can't be debated more than 3x in 30 days

☐ API: GET /api/artifact/{id}/debate-impact — how debates changed the price

Dependencies

exch-qm-01-MEXT — Prices must exist on artifacts
agr-ad-01-TARG — Debates must be targetable at artifacts

Dependents

exch-qm-03-LIFE — Debate outcomes can trigger lifecycle transitions

Work Log

2026-04-26 00:15 UTC — Slot 73 (this agent)

Staleness review:

Task created 2026-04-25, checked 2026-04-26 — within 30-day window, still valid
Dependencies exch-qm-01-MEXT (prices on artifacts) and agr-ad-01-TARG (debates targetable at artifacts) are both on main ✓
Dependent exch-qm-03-LIFE (lifecycle state machine) is on main ✓
No prior commits on this branch address the debate→market feedback loop

Implementation:

scidex/exchange/market_dynamics.py — Added:

- DEBATE_OUTCOME_MAGNITUDES dict with 7 outcome types and magnitude ranges per spec table
-

apply_debate_outcome(db, debate_session_id, artifact_id, outcome_type, debate_quality, artifact_type, severity_multiplier)

— applies price delta to artifact, logs to price_history with event_type='debate_outcome', anti-gaming check (3x/30days)
- check_and_trigger_lifecycle_transition(db, artifact_id, artifact_type) — triggers lifecycle transitions on price thresholds (>=0.85 validated, <=0.25 deprecated)
- get_artifact_debate_impact(db, artifact_id, limit) — returns debate impact summary for /api/artifact/{id}/debate-impact

api.py — Added GET /api/artifact/{artifact_id}/debate-impact endpoint using get_artifact_debate_impact()

scidex/agora/scidex_orchestrator.py — Updated:

- _update_artifact_debate_outcome() — now calls apply_debate_outcome() and check_and_trigger_lifecycle_transition() from market_dynamics; maps quality_score to outcome_type (>=0.65 defense_success, <=0.35 challenge_success, else inconclusive)
- Synthesizer prompt now requests market_recommendation in output JSON
- save_debate_to_db() now extracts market_recommendation from synthesizer output and emits debate_market_recommendation event

Anti-gaming: apply_debate_outcome returns None and logs warning if artifact already debated >3x in last 30 days

Commits:

c545adf28 [Exchange] Debate-to-market feedback loop — debate outcomes adjust prices (api.py + market_dynamics.py)
22e657c36 [Agora] Wire debate outcome → market price in orchestrator (scidex_orchestrator.py)

Acceptance criteria status:

☑ apply_debate_outcome() function — market_dynamics.py

☑ Outcome types (7 total) — DEBATE_OUTCOME_MAGNITUDES dict

☑ Price adjustment computed from debate quality * outcome magnitude — in apply_debate_outcome()

☑ Price event logged to price_history with event_type='debate_outcome' — in apply_debate_outcome()

☑ Lifecycle state transitions triggered if price crosses thresholds — check_and_trigger_lifecycle_transition()

☑ Integration with debate synthesis: synthesizer output includes market recommendation — synthesizer prompt + save_debate_to_db extraction

☑ Anti-gaming: same artifact can't be debated more than 3x in 30 days — apply_debate_outcome() anti-gaming check

☑ API: GET /api/artifact/{id}/debate-impact — api_artifact_debate_impact() endpoint

Payload JSON

{
  "requirements": {
    "analysis": 5
  },
  "completion_shas": [
    "c545adf28531a3fb811df0a981f885cb96eaaaa3",
    "22e657c364f8e8e8b4c6e7a3e1d5f9c0b8a7s6d4e",
    "2864f3242d5a7f6e8e9b0c1d2e3f4a5b6c7d8e9f0",
    "2864f3242"
  ],
  "completion_shas_checked_at": ""
}