SciDEX — Task: [Forge] Experiment results and validation pipeline

Add experiment_results table linking experiment outcomes to predictions. When an experiment completes, compare actual results to predicted outcomes and auto-update hypothesis scores. Build the prediction-vs-reality comparison engine. Connect to existing experiments table. ## REOPENED TASK — CRITICAL CONTEXT This task was previously marked 'done' but the audit could not verify the work actually landed on main. The original work may have been: - Lost to an orphan branch / failed push - Only a spec-file edit (no code changes) - Already addressed by other agents in the meantime - Made obsolete by subsequent work **Before doing anything else:** 1. **Re-evaluate the task in light of CURRENT main state.** Read the spec and the relevant files on origin/main NOW. The original task may have been written against a state of the code that no longer exists. 2. **Verify the task still advances SciDEX's aims.** If the system has evolved past the need for this work (different architecture, different priorities), close the task with reason "obsolete: " instead of doing it. 3. **Check if it's already done.** Run `git log --grep=''` and read the related commits. If real work landed, complete the task with `--no-sha-check --summary 'Already done in '`. 4. **Make sure your changes don't regress recent functionality.** Many agents have been working on this codebase. Before committing, run `git log --since='24 hours ago' -- ` to see what changed in your area, and verify you don't undo any of it. 5. **Stay scoped.** Only do what this specific task asks for. Do not refactor, do not "fix" unrelated issues, do not add features that weren't requested. Scope creep at this point is regression risk. If you cannot do this task safely (because it would regress, conflict with current direction, or the requirements no longer apply), escalate via `orchestra escalate` with a clear explanation instead of committing.

Completion Notes

Auto-completed by supervisor after successful deploy to main

Git Commits (2)

[Forge] Update 5f27f904 spec work log: implementation complete [task:5f27f904-d33b-4f57-9c05-110d93f20ad9]2026-04-13

[Forge] Add experiment results API and experiment detail display [task:5f27f904-d33b-4f57-9c05-110d93f20ad9]2026-04-13

Spec File

Goal

Expose the experiment results validation pipeline via API and display results on experiment detail pages. The core pipeline (record_result, compare_to_prediction, update_hypothesis_from_result) already exists in experiment_validator.py. Missing: (1) API endpoint to record results, (2) results display on experiment detail page.

Acceptance Criteria

☑ POST /api/experiments/{id}/results endpoint records experiment results and triggers hypothesis score updates

☑ Experiment detail page displays all results for that experiment

☑ Results show outcome, confidence, summary, and linked predictions

☑ Price history is logged when hypothesis scores update (handled by experiment_validator.record_result())

Approach

Add Pydantic models for experiment result input

Add POST /api/experiment/{id}/results endpoint in api.py that calls experiment_validator.record_result()

Add results section to experiment_detail() HTML page (around line 29607, after Debate History)

Test the API endpoint and page display

Dependencies

experiment_validator.py (already implemented)
experiment_results table (already exists)
hypothesis_predictions table (already exists)

Dependents

Quest work on experiment tracking and hypothesis validation

Work Log

2026-04-13 — Slot minimax:51

Investigated current state: experiment_results table exists, experiment_validator.py has core pipeline
Core functions present: record_result(), compare_to_prediction(), update_hypothesis_from_result(), get_experiment_results()
Gap identified: No API endpoint to record results, experiment_detail page doesn't display results
Implemented:

- Added ExperimentResultCreate Pydantic model
- Added POST /api/experiments/{experiment_id}/results endpoint that calls experiment_validator.record_result()
- Added exp_results query to experiment_detail() function
- Added results HTML section showing outcome, confidence, score impact, predictions, and evidence sources

Committed and pushed: 3d4260ea9 [task:5f27f904-d33b-4f57-9c05-110d93f20ad9]
Result: Done — API endpoint and experiment detail display implemented

Payload JSON

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  "completion_shas_checked_at": "2026-04-14T04:09:57.770302+00:00",
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