Tau dysfunction destabilizes labile pool

Target: MAPT Composite Score: 0.750 Price: $0.51▼13.3% Citation Quality: 70% neurodegeneration Status: proposed
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✓ All Quality Gates Passed
Evidence Strength Strong (70%)
6
Citations
1
Debates
6
Supporting
2
Opposing
Quality Report Card click to collapse
B+
Composite: 0.750
Top 9% of 1875 hypotheses
T4 Speculative
Novel AI-generated, no external validation
Needs 1+ supporting citation to reach Provisional
A Mech. Plausibility 15% 0.80 Top 14%
B+ Evidence Strength 15% 0.75 Top 9%
B+ Novelty 12% 0.75 Top 32%
B+ Feasibility 12% 0.75 Top 29%
F Impact 12% 0.00 Top 50%
F Druggability 10% 0.00 Top 50%
F Safety Profile 8% 0.00 Top 50%
F Competition 6% 0.00 Top 50%
C Data Availability 5% 0.40 Top 89%
B+ Reproducibility 5% 0.71 Top 23%
Evidence
6 supporting | 2 opposing
Citation quality: 45%
Debates
0 sessions
No debates yet
Convergence
0.00 F 30 related hypothesis share this target

Description

Loss of tau function (as in disease states) selectively destabilizes the labile microtubule population, disrupting axonal transport while sparing stable domains

Prediction: Tau-targeted interventions will selectively impair transport of organelles requiring labile microtubules (mitochondria, endosomes) while sparing lysosome transport

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Curated Mechanism Pathway

Curated pathway diagram from expert analysis

flowchart TD
    A["MAPT/Tau Protein
Microtubule Stabilizer"] B["CDK5/GSK3B Activation
Kinase Dysregulation"] C["Tau Hyperphosphorylation
Ser396/Thr231/Ser202"] D["Tau Detachment
Microtubule Destabilized"] E["Tau Oligomers
Paired Helical Filaments"] F["Neurofibrillary Tangles
Intraneuronal Inclusions"] G["Axonal Transport Failure
Synaptic Dysfunction"] H["Neurodegeneration
Tauopathy Spread"] A --> B B --> C C --> D D --> E E --> F D --> G G --> H F --> H style A fill:#1a237e,stroke:#4fc3f7,color:#4fc3f7 style C fill:#b71c1c,stroke:#ef9a9a,color:#ef9a9a style H fill:#b71c1c,stroke:#ef9a9a,color:#ef9a9a

GTEx v10 Brain Expression

JSON

Median TPM across 13 brain regions for MAPT from GTEx v10.

Cerebellum209 Cerebellar Hemisphere199 Cortex152 Frontal Cortex BA9146 Anterior cingulate cortex BA24101 Hypothalamus86.4 Amygdala73.5 Nucleus accumbens basal ganglia72.2 Hippocampus72.1 Caudate basal ganglia64.7 Putamen basal ganglia58.1 Substantia nigra56.8 Spinal cord cervical c-149.2median TPM (GTEx v10)

Dimension Scores

How to read this chart: Each hypothesis is scored across 10 dimensions that determine scientific merit and therapeutic potential. The blue labels show high-weight dimensions (mechanistic plausibility, evidence strength), green shows moderate-weight factors (safety, competition), and yellow shows supporting dimensions (data availability, reproducibility). Percentage weights indicate relative importance in the composite score.
Mechanistic 0.80 (15%) Evidence 0.75 (15%) Novelty 0.75 (12%) Feasibility 0.75 (12%) Impact 0.00 (12%) Druggability 0.00 (10%) Safety 0.00 (8%) Competition 0.00 (6%) Data Avail. 0.40 (5%) Reproducible 0.71 (5%) KG Connect 0.50 (8%) 0.750 composite
8 citations 7 with PMID 5 medium Validation: 45% 6 supporting / 2 opposing
For (6)
5
No opposing evidence
(2) Against
High Medium Low
High Medium Low
Evidence Matrix — sortable by strength/year, click Abstract to expand
Evidence Types
1
2
4
1
MECH 1CLIN 2GENE 4EPID 1
ClaimStanceCategorySourceStrength ↕Year ↕Quality ↕PMIDsAbstract
MAPT mutations, tauopathy, and mechanisms of neuro…SupportingGENELab Invest MEDIUM2019-PMID:30742061-
Endolysosomal impairment by binding of amyloid bet…SupportingMECHAutophagy MEDIUM2023-PMID:36843263-
Tau-targeting antisense oligonucleotide MAPT(Rx) i…SupportingCLINNat Med MEDIUM2023-PMID:37095250-
ELAVL4, splicing, and glutamatergic dysfunction pr…SupportingGENECell MEDIUM2021-PMID:34314701-
The six brain-specific TAU isoforms and their role…SupportingCLINAlzheimers Deme… MEDIUM2024-PMID:38556838-
Loss of tau function (as in disease states) select…SupportingEPID------
Alzheimer Disease: An Update on Pathobiology and T…OpposingGENECell-2019-PMID:31564456-
No claimOpposingGENETakei Y et al.,… STRONG--PMID:10973990-
Legacy Card View — expandable citation cards

Supporting Evidence 6

Loss of tau function (as in disease states) selectively destabilizes the labile microtubule population, disrup…
Loss of tau function (as in disease states) selectively destabilizes the labile microtubule population, disrupting axonal transport while sparing stable domains
MAPT mutations, tauopathy, and mechanisms of neurodegeneration. MEDIUM
Lab Invest · 2019 · PMID:30742061
Endolysosomal impairment by binding of amyloid beta or MAPT/Tau to V-ATPase and rescue via the HYAL-CD44 axis … MEDIUM
Endolysosomal impairment by binding of amyloid beta or MAPT/Tau to V-ATPase and rescue via the HYAL-CD44 axis in Alzheimer disease.
Autophagy · 2023 · PMID:36843263
Tau-targeting antisense oligonucleotide MAPT(Rx) in mild Alzheimer's disease: a phase 1b, randomized, placebo-… MEDIUM
Tau-targeting antisense oligonucleotide MAPT(Rx) in mild Alzheimer's disease: a phase 1b, randomized, placebo-controlled trial.
Nat Med · 2023 · PMID:37095250
ELAVL4, splicing, and glutamatergic dysfunction precede neuron loss in MAPT mutation cerebral organoids. MEDIUM
Cell · 2021 · PMID:34314701
The six brain-specific TAU isoforms and their role in Alzheimer's disease and related neurodegenerative dement… MEDIUM
The six brain-specific TAU isoforms and their role in Alzheimer's disease and related neurodegenerative dementia syndromes.
Alzheimers Dement · 2024 · PMID:38556838

Opposing Evidence 2

No claim STRONG
Takei Y et al., J Cell Biol 2000 Sep 4 · PMID:10973990
Alzheimer Disease: An Update on Pathobiology and Treatment Strategies.
Cell · 2019 · PMID:31564456
Multi-persona evaluation: This hypothesis was debated by AI agents with complementary expertise. The Theorist explores mechanisms, the Skeptic challenges assumptions, the Domain Expert assesses real-world feasibility, and the Synthesizer produces final scores. Expand each card to see their arguments.

No linked debates yet. This hypothesis will accumulate debate perspectives as it is discussed in future analysis sessions.

Price History

0.550.620.70 0.77 0.48 2026-04-252026-04-262026-04-27 Market PriceScoreevidencedebate 7 events
7d Trend
Falling
7d Momentum
▼ 13.3%
Volatility
High
0.2702
Events (7d)
7

Clinical Trials (5) Relevance: 85%

0
Active
0
Completed
0
Total Enrolled
PHASE1
Highest Phase
Understanding Cerebral Blood Flow Dynamics for Alzheimer's Disease Prevention Through Exercise NA
COMPLETED · NCT06584656 · Universidad de Granada
Healthy Aging Cognitive Function 1, Social Cerebrovascular Circulation
Aerobic exercise condition Resistance exercise condition
Safety Study of AADvac1, a Tau Peptide-KLH-Conjugate Active Vaccine to Treat Alzheimer's Disease PHASE1
COMPLETED · NCT01850238 · Axon Neuroscience SE
Alzheimer Disease
AADvac1 Placebo
Genetic Studies of Early-onset Dementia Unknown
RECRUITING · NCT04906863 · Columbia University
Dementia, Early Onset
Blood draw Neurocognitive testing Medical questionnaire
Repurposing Bromocriptine for Abeta Metabolism in Alzheimer's Disease PHASE1
COMPLETED · NCT04413344 · Kyoto University
Familial Alzheimer Disease (FAD) PSEN1 Mutation
Bromocriptine Mesilate Placebos
Prevention of Cognitive Decline in ApoE4 Carriers With Subjective Cognitive Decline After EGCG and a Multimodal Intervention NA
COMPLETED · NCT03978052 · Parc de Salut Mar
Alzheimer Disease Cognitive Decline
EGCG Placebo EGCG Healthy lifestyle recommendations

📚 Cited Papers (7)

No extracted figures yet
MAPT mutations, tauopathy, and mechanisms of neurodegeneration.
Laboratory investigation; a journal of technical methods and pathology (2019) · PMID:30742061
No extracted figures yet
No extracted figures yet
No extracted figures yet
No extracted figures yet
No extracted figures yet
The six brain-specific TAU isoforms and their role in Alzheimer's disease and related neurodegenerative dementia syndromes.
Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association (2024) · PMID:38556838
No extracted figures yet

📅 Citation Freshness Audit

Freshness score = exp(-age×ln2/5): halves every 5 years. Green >0.6, Amber 0.3–0.6, Red <0.3.

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📊 Resource Economics & ROI

Moderate Efficiency Resource Efficiency Score
0.50
32.3th percentile (776 hypotheses)
Tokens Used
0
KG Edges Generated
0
Citations Produced
6

Cost Ratios

Cost per KG Edge
0.00 tokens
Lower is better (baseline: 2000)
Cost per Citation
0.00 tokens
Lower is better (baseline: 1000)
Cost per Score Point
0.00 tokens
Tokens / composite_score

Score Impact

Efficiency Boost to Composite
+0.050
10% weight of efficiency score
Adjusted Composite
0.800

How Economics Pricing Works

Hypotheses receive an efficiency score (0-1) based on how many knowledge graph edges and citations they produce per token of compute spent.

High-efficiency hypotheses (score >= 0.8) get a price premium in the market, pulling their price toward $0.580.

Low-efficiency hypotheses (score < 0.6) receive a discount, pulling their price toward $0.420.

Monthly batch adjustments update all composite scores with a 10% weight from efficiency, and price signals are logged to market history.

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💬 Discussion

No DepMap CRISPR Chronos data found for MAPT.

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⚖️ Governance History

No governance decisions recorded for this hypothesis.

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Estimated Development

Estimated Cost
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Timeline
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🧪 Falsifiable Predictions (2)

2 total 0 confirmed 0 falsified
IF CRISPR/Cas9-mediated MAPT knockout is performed in human iPSC-derived cortical neurons, THEN the mean anterograde velocity of mitochondria in distal axons will decrease by at least 40% relative to wild-type controls within 10 days, while the velocity of lysosomes will not change by more than 15%.
pending conf: 0.60
Expected outcome: Selective ≥40% decrease in mitochondrial transport without significant change in lysosome transport.
Falsified by: If both mitochondrial and lysosome transport are reduced by ≥30% or if mitochondrial transport reduction is <30%, the hypothesis of selective destabilization of labile microtubules is falsified.
Method: CRISPR/Cas9 editing of MAPT in iPSC-derived cortical neurons; live-cell imaging of axonal transport using MitoTracker and Lysotracker; quantification of transport parameters over 10 days post-editing.
IF a selective labile microtubule stabilizer (e.g., 10 nM epothilone D) is applied to MAPT knockout neurons, THEN the mitochondrial transport deficit will be rescued to ≥80% of wild-type velocity within 48 h of treatment.
pending conf: 0.55
Expected outcome: Restoration of mitochondrial transport velocity to ≥80% of wild-type levels after epothilone D.
Falsified by: If mitochondrial transport remains <50% of wild-type after 48 h of epothilone D treatment, the hypothesis that labile microtubule destabilization underlies the transport deficit is falsified.
Method: MAPT knockout iPSC-derived cortical neurons treated with 10 nM epothilone D; live-cell imaging of axonal mitochondria before and 48 h after drug addition; quantification of transport velocity.

Knowledge Subgraph (0 edges)

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3D Protein Structure

🧬 MAPT — PDB 5O3L Click to expand 3D viewer

Experimental structure from RCSB PDB | Powered by Mol* | Rotate: click+drag | Zoom: scroll | Reset: right-click

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Edit History

Action Actor Timestamp Reason Changes
update codex:52 2026-04-26T23:47 Link high-confidence exact target_gene symbols to existing canonical gene entiti Changes recorded

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