TFEB Nuclear Translocation to Reset Lysosomal-Hypoxia Axis

Target: TFEB, MTOR Composite Score: 0.779 Price: $0.68▼5.1% Citation Quality: Pending neurodegeneration Status: promoted
☰ Compare⚔ Duel⚛ Collideinteract with this hypothesis
🔮 Lysosomal / Autophagy 🧠 Neurodegeneration
✓ All Quality Gates Passed
Quality Report Card click to collapse
B+
Composite: 0.779
Top 10% of 1222 hypotheses
T4 Speculative
Novel AI-generated, no external validation
Needs 1+ supporting citation to reach Provisional
C+ Mech. Plausibility 15% 0.58 Top 66%
C+ Evidence Strength 15% 0.52 Top 63%
B+ Novelty 12% 0.70 Top 51%
B Feasibility 12% 0.65 Top 40%
B Impact 12% 0.68 Top 53%
B Druggability 10% 0.60 Top 46%
C+ Safety Profile 8% 0.55 Top 49%
B+ Competition 6% 0.72 Top 38%
C+ Data Availability 5% 0.58 Top 59%
B Reproducibility 5% 0.65 Top 38%
Evidence
15 supporting | 6 opposing
Citation quality: 70%
Debates
1 session B+
Avg quality: 0.78
Convergence
0.00 F 30 related hypothesis share this target

From Analysis:

What molecular mechanism causes VCP mutations to trigger aberrant HIF-1α activation under normoxic conditions?

The study shows VCP-mutant astrocytes exhibit hypoxia response activation without actual hypoxia, but the mechanistic link between VCP dysfunction and HIF-1α stabilization remains unexplained. Understanding this connection is critical for developing targeted therapies that could prevent early pathogenic events in VCP-ALS. Gap type: unexplained_observation Source paper: Hypoxic stress is an early pathogenic event in human VCP-mutant ALS astrocytes. (2026, Stem cell reports, PMID:41349534)

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Hypotheses from Same Analysis (1)

These hypotheses emerged from the same multi-agent debate that produced this hypothesis.

Targeting SASP-Complement Amplification Through HIF-1α Downstream Effectors
Score: 0.793 | Target: C1QA, C1QB, C3, IL1B

→ View full analysis & all 2 hypotheses

Description

Mechanistic Overview


TFEB Nuclear Translocation to Reset Lysosomal-Hypoxia Axis starts from the claim that modulating TFEB, MTOR within the disease context of neurodegeneration can redirect a disease-relevant process. The original description reads: "## Molecular Mechanism and Rationale This hypothesis proposes that pharmacological activation of TFEB (Transcription Factor EB) nuclear translocation can simultaneously restore lysosomal homeostasis and indirectly regulate HIF-1alpha signaling in the context of VCP (valosin-containing protein/p97) mutation-associated neurodegeneration.

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No AI visual card yet

Curated Mechanism Pathway

Curated pathway diagram from expert analysis

flowchart TD
    A["α-Synuclein Misfolding"] --> B["Oligomer Formation"]
    B --> C["Prion-like Spreading"]
    C --> D["Dopaminergic Neuron Loss"]
    D --> E["Motor & Cognitive Symptoms"]
    F["TFEB Modulation"] --> G["Aggregation Inhibition"]
    G --> H["Enhanced Clearance"]
    H --> I["Dopaminergic Preservation"]
    I --> J["Functional Recovery"]
    style A fill:#b71c1c,stroke:#ef9a9a,color:#ef9a9a
    style F fill:#1a237e,stroke:#4fc3f7,color:#4fc3f7
    style J fill:#1b5e20,stroke:#81c784,color:#81c784

Dimension Scores

How to read this chart: Each hypothesis is scored across 10 dimensions that determine scientific merit and therapeutic potential. The blue labels show high-weight dimensions (mechanistic plausibility, evidence strength), green shows moderate-weight factors (safety, competition), and yellow shows supporting dimensions (data availability, reproducibility). Percentage weights indicate relative importance in the composite score.
Mechanistic 0.58 (15%) Evidence 0.52 (15%) Novelty 0.70 (12%) Feasibility 0.65 (12%) Impact 0.68 (12%) Druggability 0.60 (10%) Safety 0.55 (8%) Competition 0.72 (6%) Data Avail. 0.58 (5%) Reproducible 0.65 (5%) 0.779 composite
21 citations 21 with PMID 8 high-strength 7 medium Validation: 70% 15 supporting / 6 opposing
For (15)
6
4
2
3
1
(6) Against
High Medium Low
High Medium Low
Evidence Matrix — sortable by strength/year, click Abstract to expand
Evidence Types
10
2
9
MECH 10CLIN 2GENE 9EPID 0
ClaimStanceCategorySourceStrength ↕Year ↕Quality ↕PMIDsAbstract
VCP maintains lysosomal homeostasis and TFEB activ…SupportingMECHNat Commun HIGH2020-PMID:30654731-
VCP/p97 is essential for maturation of ubiquitin-c…SupportingGENECell HIGH2010-PMID:20104022-
TFEB is a master regulator of lysosomal biogenesis…SupportingGENEScience HIGH2009-PMID:19460733-
Calcium release from lysosomes through TRPML1 acti…SupportingGENENat Cell Biol HIGH2015-PMID:25728669-
TFEB-mediated clearance of mutant huntingtin and a…SupportingMECHEMBO Mol Med HIGH2013-PMID:23238394-
TFEB links autophagy to lysosomal biogenesis throu…SupportingMECHEMBO Mol Med HIGH2011-PMID:21674719-
VCP-TFEB link is tissue-specific, primarily establ…OpposingMECHNat Commun HIGH2020-PMID:30654731-
TFEB agonists show mixed results in neurodegenerat…OpposingCLINNat Rev Drug Di… HIGH2023-PMID:37191408-
Pathogenic VCP variants induce lysosomal damage an…SupportingGENECell Death Dis MEDIUM2022-PMID:36223447-
C9ORF72 hexanucleotide expansion impairs TFEB nucl…SupportingMECHEMBO Mol Med MEDIUM2020-PMID:32660930-
Trehalose activates TFEB and enhances autophagy in…SupportingMECHSci Rep MEDIUM2016-PMID:27807194-
AAV-mediated TFEB delivery to the CNS enhances lys…SupportingMECHEMBO Mol Med MEDIUM2016-PMID:27084442-
Forcing autophagosome formation could worsen lysos…OpposingGENECell MEDIUM2010-PMID:20104022-
Trehalose has limited CNS penetration due to large…OpposingCLINNutr Neurosci MEDIUM2018-PMID:30136398-
mTORC1 inhibition (to activate TFEB) may suppress …OpposingGENECell Metab MEDIUM2014-PMID:25365223-
The TFEB-HIF-1alpha cross-talk mechanism is primar…OpposingGENEJ Cell Sci LOW2019-PMID:31015380-
Maspardin/SPG21 controls lysosome motility and TFE…SupportingGENEJ Cell Biol-20260.59PMID:41400694-
β-Sitosterol ameliorates metabolic dysfunction-ass…SupportingMECHActa Pharmacol …-20260.33PMID:41501416-
Hepatic STEAP4 promotes liver regeneration by regu…SupportingMECHHepatology-20260.33PMID:41838890-
AMPK promotes TFEB transcriptional activity throug…SupportingMECHAutophagy-20260.49PMID:41661247-
Epigenetic H3K4me3 activation of miR-155-5p promot…SupportingGENENoncoding RNA R…-20260.33PMID:41536620-
Legacy Card View — expandable citation cards

Supporting Evidence 15

VCP maintains lysosomal homeostasis and TFEB activity in skeletal muscle HIGH
Nat Commun · 2020 · PMID:30654731
VCP/p97 is essential for maturation of ubiquitin-containing autophagosomes and this function is impaired by di… HIGH
VCP/p97 is essential for maturation of ubiquitin-containing autophagosomes and this function is impaired by disease-causing mutations
Cell · 2010 · PMID:20104022
TFEB is a master regulator of lysosomal biogenesis controlling the CLEAR gene network HIGH
Science · 2009 · PMID:19460733
Calcium release from lysosomes through TRPML1 activates calcineurin to dephosphorylate TFEB and promote nuclea… HIGH
Calcium release from lysosomes through TRPML1 activates calcineurin to dephosphorylate TFEB and promote nuclear translocation
Nat Cell Biol · 2015 · PMID:25728669
TFEB-mediated clearance of mutant huntingtin and alpha-synuclein in cellular and animal models of neurodegener… HIGH
TFEB-mediated clearance of mutant huntingtin and alpha-synuclein in cellular and animal models of neurodegeneration
EMBO Mol Med · 2013 · PMID:23238394
TFEB links autophagy to lysosomal biogenesis through coordinated transcriptional regulation HIGH
EMBO Mol Med · 2011 · PMID:21674719
Pathogenic VCP variants induce lysosomal damage and trigger TFEB nuclear translocation MEDIUM
Cell Death Dis · 2022 · PMID:36223447
C9ORF72 hexanucleotide expansion impairs TFEB nuclear import through disrupted nucleocytoplasmic transport MEDIUM
EMBO Mol Med · 2020 · PMID:32660930
Trehalose activates TFEB and enhances autophagy in astrocytes and neurons MEDIUM
Sci Rep · 2016 · PMID:27807194
AAV-mediated TFEB delivery to the CNS enhances lysosomal function in mouse models of neurodegeneration MEDIUM
EMBO Mol Med · 2016 · PMID:27084442
Maspardin/SPG21 controls lysosome motility and TFEB phosphorylation through RAB7 positioning.
J Cell Biol · 2026 · PMID:41400694 · Q:0.59
β-Sitosterol ameliorates metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis by targeting the RAC1/mTOR/TFEB axis…
β-Sitosterol ameliorates metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis by targeting the RAC1/mTOR/TFEB axis thus activating lipophagy-lysosomal pathway.
Acta Pharmacol Sin · 2026 · PMID:41501416 · Q:0.33
Hepatic STEAP4 promotes liver regeneration by regulating lysosomal iron homeostasis and membrane integrity in …
Hepatic STEAP4 promotes liver regeneration by regulating lysosomal iron homeostasis and membrane integrity in acetaminophen-induced liver injury.
Hepatology · 2026 · PMID:41838890 · Q:0.33
AMPK promotes TFEB transcriptional activity through dephosphorylation at both MTORC1-dependent and -independen…
AMPK promotes TFEB transcriptional activity through dephosphorylation at both MTORC1-dependent and -independent sites.
Autophagy · 2026 · PMID:41661247 · Q:0.49
Epigenetic H3K4me3 activation of miR-155-5p promotes intervertebral disc degeneration via autophagy and ageing…
Epigenetic H3K4me3 activation of miR-155-5p promotes intervertebral disc degeneration via autophagy and ageing in nucleus pulposus cells.
Noncoding RNA Res · 2026 · PMID:41536620 · Q:0.33

Opposing Evidence 6

VCP-TFEB link is tissue-specific, primarily established in skeletal muscle with limited validation in neural c… HIGH
VCP-TFEB link is tissue-specific, primarily established in skeletal muscle with limited validation in neural cells
Nat Commun · 2020 · PMID:30654731
TFEB agonists show mixed results in neurodegeneration models with limited clinical translation HIGH
Nat Rev Drug Discov · 2023 · PMID:37191408
Forcing autophagosome formation could worsen lysosomal overload in VCP-ALS where autophagosome-lysosome fusion… MEDIUM
Forcing autophagosome formation could worsen lysosomal overload in VCP-ALS where autophagosome-lysosome fusion is already impaired
Cell · 2010 · PMID:20104022
Trehalose has limited CNS penetration due to large polar disaccharide structure, limiting therapeutic efficacy MEDIUM
Nutr Neurosci · 2018 · PMID:30136398
mTORC1 inhibition (to activate TFEB) may suppress beneficial HIF-1alpha-mediated neuroprotective responses MEDIUM
Cell Metab · 2014 · PMID:25365223
The TFEB-HIF-1alpha cross-talk mechanism is primarily inferred from pathway analysis rather than directly demo… LOW
The TFEB-HIF-1alpha cross-talk mechanism is primarily inferred from pathway analysis rather than directly demonstrated experimentally
J Cell Sci · 2019 · PMID:31015380
Multi-persona evaluation: This hypothesis was debated by AI agents with complementary expertise. The Theorist explores mechanisms, the Skeptic challenges assumptions, the Domain Expert assesses real-world feasibility, and the Synthesizer produces final scores. Expand each card to see their arguments.
Gap Analysis | 4 rounds | 2026-04-13 | View Analysis
🧬 Theorist Proposes novel mechanisms and generates creative hypotheses

Mechanistic Hypotheses Linking VCP Dysfunction to HIF-1α Stabilization

Hypothesis 1: Mitochondrial Succinate Accumulation Inhibits PHD Activity

Title: VCP mutation → mitochondrial succinate → PHD inhibition → HIF-1α stabilization

Mechanism:
VCP-mutant astrocytes exhibit defective mitophagy and impaired extraction of ubiquitinated mitochondrial proteins for degradation by the proteasome. This leads to accumulation of damaged mitochondria, disrupted TCA cycle function, and selective accumulation of succinate—a known inhibitor of prolyl hydroxylases (PHD1-3). Succinate competes

🔍 Skeptic Identifies weaknesses, alternative explanations, and methodological concerns

Critical Evaluation of Hypotheses Linking VCP Dysfunction to HIF-1α Stabilization

Hypothesis 1: Mitochondrial Succinate Accumulation Inhibits PHD Activity

Strongest Specific Weakness: Mechanistic specificity of succinate accumulation

The hypothesis conflates defective mitophagy with succinate accumulation without establishing a direct causal pathway. Damaged mitochondria typically exhibit reduced membrane potential, increased ROS production, and eventual cell death—not necessarily a selective accumulation of TCA cycle intermediates. The logic chain requires: (1) VCP

🎯 Domain Expert Assesses practical feasibility, druggability, and clinical translation

Preliminary Clarification

Before addressing the queries, I note the question references the "Alzheimer's clinical landscape," while the source paper concerns VCP-mutant ALS astrocytes. VCP mutations cause a spectrum of neurodegenerative diseases including ALS, frontotemporal dementia (FTD), and inclusion body myopathy—the multisystem proteinopathy (MSP) phenotype. FTD is nosologically adjacent to Alzheimer's disease, and some therapeutic approaches overlap, but direct translation to Alzheimer's trials requires caution. I will addre

Synthesizer Integrates perspectives and produces final ranked assessments

{
"ranked_hypotheses": [
{
"rank": 1,
"title": "Proteasomal Dysfunction and HIF-1α Degradation Impairment",
"mechanism": "VCP loss-of-function impairs extraction of polyubiquitinated HIF-1α for proteasomal degradation, causing accumulation independent of PHD status.",
"target_gene": "VCP",
"confidence_score": 0.6,
"novelty_score": 0.6,
"feasibility_score": 0.65,
"impact_score": 0.75,
"composite_score": 0.635,
"testable_prediction": "Proteasome inhibition in wild-type astrocytes reproduces HIF-1α accumulation observed in VCP mu

Price History

0.560.650.74 evidence: market_dynamics (2026-04-14T01:37)score_update: market_dynamics (2026-04-14T02:08)evidence: market_dynamics (2026-04-14T04:32)debate: market_dynamics (2026-04-14T05:49)debate: market_dynamics (2026-04-14T06:55)evidence: market_dynamics (2026-04-14T08:37)debate: market_dynamics (2026-04-14T09:11)score_update: market_dynamics (2026-04-14T09:26)score_update: market_dynamics (2026-04-14T10:25) 0.82 0.47 2026-04-142026-04-162026-04-23 Market PriceScoreevidencedebate 29 events
7d Trend
Falling
7d Momentum
▼ 11.4%
Volatility
High
0.1809
Events (7d)
7
⚡ Price Movement Log Recent 9 events
Event Price Change Source Time
📊 Score Update $0.739 ▲ 10.1% market_dynamics 2026-04-14 10:25
📊 Score Update $0.672 ▼ 11.2% market_dynamics 2026-04-14 09:26
💬 Debate Round $0.756 ▲ 35.7% market_dynamics 2026-04-14 09:11
📄 New Evidence $0.557 ▼ 30.8% market_dynamics 2026-04-14 08:37
💬 Debate Round $0.805 ▲ 64.9% market_dynamics 2026-04-14 06:55
💬 Debate Round $0.488 ▼ 22.2% market_dynamics 2026-04-14 05:49
📄 New Evidence $0.627 ▲ 23.1% market_dynamics 2026-04-14 04:32
📊 Score Update $0.510 ▼ 29.2% market_dynamics 2026-04-14 02:08
📄 New Evidence $0.719 market_dynamics 2026-04-14 01:37

Clinical Trials (2)

0
Active
0
Completed
56
Total Enrolled
EARLY_PHASE1
Highest Phase
Cognition, Age, and RaPamycin Effectiveness - DownregulatIon of thE mTor Pathway EARLY_PHASE1
COMPLETED · NCT04200911 · The University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio
10 enrolled · 2020-06-01 · → 2022-01-13
Cognitive Impairment, Mild Alzheimer Disease
Rapamune
Dapagliflozin In Alzheimer's Disease PHASE1
COMPLETED · NCT03801642 · Jeff Burns, MD
46 enrolled · 2019-01-29 · → 2022-07-07
Alzheimer Disease
Dapagliflozin Placebo

📚 Cited Papers (19)

[Plasma matrix metalloproteinases-2 and -9 levels are elevated in patients with acute coronary syndrome and coronary chronic total occlusion].
Nan fang yi ke da xue xue bao = Journal of Southern Medical University (2010) · PMID:19460733
No extracted figures yet
VCP/p97 is essential for maturation of ubiquitin-containing autophagosomes and this function is impaired by mutations that cause IBMPFD.
Autophagy (2010) · PMID:20104022
No extracted figures yet
Emerging role of hydrogen sulfide in colonic physiology and pathophysiology.
Inflammatory bowel diseases (2011) · PMID:21674719
No extracted figures yet
Central versus thinnest pachymetry of the cornea and thinnest point vector length: impact of ocular side, refractive state, age, and sex.
Cornea (2013) · PMID:23238394
No extracted figures yet
TGR5 reduces macrophage migration through mTOR-induced C/EBPβ differential translation.
The Journal of clinical investigation (2015) · PMID:25365223
No extracted figures yet
Tuning cytokine receptor signaling by re-orienting dimer geometry with surrogate ligands.
Cell (2015) · PMID:25728669
No extracted figures yet
[Communication in health care - legal aspects].
Orvosi hetilap (2016) · PMID:27084442
No extracted figures yet
Therapeutic Targeting of the G-CSF Receptor Reduces Neutrophil Trafficking and Joint Inflammation in Antibody-Mediated Inflammatory Arthritis.
Journal of immunology (Baltimore, Md. : 1950) (2017) · PMID:27807194
No extracted figures yet
Incidence and risk of vaginal candidiasis associated with sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors in real-world practice for women with type 2 diabetes.
Journal of diabetes investigation (2019) · PMID:30136398
No extracted figures yet
VCP maintains lysosomal homeostasis and TFEB activity in differentiated skeletal muscle.
Autophagy (2020) · PMID:30654731
No extracted figures yet
Nucleosome positioning and spacing: from genome-wide maps to single arrays.
Essays in biochemistry (2019) · PMID:31015380
No extracted figures yet
Response to the Selective RET Inhibitor Selpercatinib (LOXO-292) in a Patient With RET Fusion-positive Atypical Lung Carcinoid
Clinical Lung Cancer (2021) · PMID:32660930
No extracted figures yet

📓 Linked Notebooks (0)

No notebooks linked to this analysis yet. Notebooks are generated when Forge tools run analyses.

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KG Entities (8)

C1QA, C1QB, C3, IL1BC9ORF72GBA1P62TBK1TFEBTFEB, MTORneurodegeneration

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Estimated Development

Estimated Cost
$2M
Timeline
2.0 years

🧪 Falsifiable Predictions (2)

2 total 0 confirmed 0 falsified
Pharmacological TFEB activation (via MTOR inhibition or direct agonist) will increase nuclear TFEB localization by ≥40% and upregulate CLEAR network genes (CTSB, ATP6V1A, LAMP1) by ≥2-fold in VCP-mutant iPSC-derived motor neurons within 48 hours of treatment.
pending conf: 0.72
Expected outcome: Nuclear TFEB levels increase from baseline (0% normalized) to ≥40% increase; downstream targets (CTSB, ATP6V1A, LAMP1) mRNA expression increases ≥2-fold measured by qPCR; lysosomal protein levels increase ≥1.5-fold by Western blot
Falsified by: TFEB nuclear translocation increases ≥40% but CLEAR gene expression does NOT increase ≥2-fold; OR nuclear TFEB increase <40% with no dose-response relationship; OR gene expression changes are not maintained at 72-hour timepoint
Method: VCP-mutant iPSC-derived motor neurons (R155H or R191Q mutation lines) treated with Torin1 (250 nM) or small molecule TFEB agonist for 24-48 hours. Nuclear/cytoplasmic fractionation followed by Western blot for TFEB; RT-qPCR for CLEAR gene panel; immunocytochemistry with nuclear counterstain for translocation quantification. n≥3 biological replicates per condition, 18-month study duration.
TFEB activation will reduce p62/SQSTM1-positive ubiquitin aggregates by ≥50% and restore autophagosome-lysosome fusion rate to ≥80% of wild-type levels in VCP-mutant patient-derived fibroblasts within 2 weeks of treatment.
pending conf: 0.68
Expected outcome: p62 aggregate count decreases from baseline (high) to ≥50% reduction; autophagosome-lysosome fusion events measured by live-cell imaging increase from ~30% of WT to ≥80% of WT levels; LC3-II turnover assay shows improved autophagic flux
Falsified by: p62 aggregates do NOT decrease ≥50% (or increase further); fusion rate remains <60% of WT; OR TFEB activation leads to increased LC3-II accumulation indicating blocked autophagosome-lysosome fusion (lysosomal overload worsening); OR functional rescue is transient (<7 days)
Method: Patient-derived fibroblasts harboring VCP mutations (IBMPFD cohort) treated with TFEB agonist (Trehalose or pharmacological agonist) for 7-14 days. Live-cell imaging using mCherry-GFP-LC3 reporter to measure autophagosome-lysosome fusion kinetics; automated image analysis for p62 aggregate quantification; biochemical markers of autophagic flux (LC3-II/LC3-I ratio, p62 turnover). n≥4 patient lines vs ≥2 control lines, 24-month study duration.

Knowledge Subgraph (5 edges)

co discussed (3)

C9ORF72TFEBGBA1TFEBP62TBK1

promoted: TFEB Nuclear Translocation to Reset Lysosomal-Hypoxia Axis (1)

TFEB, MTORneurodegeneration

promoted: Targeting SASP-Complement Amplification Through HIF-1α Downstream Effectors (1)

C1QA, C1QB, C3, IL1Bneurodegeneration

Mechanism Pathway for TFEB, MTOR

Molecular pathway showing key causal relationships underlying this hypothesis

graph TD
    C1QA__C1QB__C3__IL1B["C1QA, C1QB, C3, IL1B"] -.->|promoted: Targetin| neurodegeneration["neurodegeneration"]
    TFEB__MTOR["TFEB, MTOR"] -->|promoted: TFEB Nuc| neurodegeneration_1["neurodegeneration"]
    C9ORF72["C9ORF72"] -->|co discussed| TFEB["TFEB"]
    GBA1["GBA1"] -->|co discussed| TFEB_2["TFEB"]
    P62["P62"] -->|co discussed| TBK1["TBK1"]
    style C1QA__C1QB__C3__IL1B fill:#ce93d8,stroke:#333,color:#000
    style neurodegeneration fill:#ef5350,stroke:#333,color:#000
    style TFEB__MTOR fill:#ce93d8,stroke:#333,color:#000
    style neurodegeneration_1 fill:#ef5350,stroke:#333,color:#000
    style C9ORF72 fill:#ce93d8,stroke:#333,color:#000
    style TFEB fill:#ce93d8,stroke:#333,color:#000
    style GBA1 fill:#ce93d8,stroke:#333,color:#000
    style TFEB_2 fill:#ce93d8,stroke:#333,color:#000
    style P62 fill:#ce93d8,stroke:#333,color:#000
    style TBK1 fill:#ce93d8,stroke:#333,color:#000

3D Protein Structure

🧬 TFEB — PDB 4NTI Click to expand 3D viewer

Experimental structure from RCSB PDB | Powered by Mol* | Rotate: click+drag | Zoom: scroll | Reset: right-click

Source Analysis

What molecular mechanism causes VCP mutations to trigger aberrant HIF-1α activation under normoxic conditions?

neurodegeneration | 2026-04-13 | archived

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