[Agora] Add data-support scores to active hypotheses

Goal

Populate data_support_score for active hypotheses so quality gates can distinguish computationally grounded hypotheses from literature-only or speculative claims. Scores should reflect actual linked analyses, datasets, KG edges, citations, or an explicit lack of supporting data.

Acceptance Criteria

Approach

Query active hypotheses where data_support_score IS NULL, ordered by impact, market, or composite score.

Inspect linked analyses, papers, datasets, KG edges, and existing evidence fields.

Assign calibrated scores and rationale using existing database write patterns.

Verify score ranges and count reduction.

Dependencies

• quest-engine-ci - Generates this task when queue depth is low and data-support gaps exist.

Dependents

• Hypothesis ranking, quality gates, and Exchange allocation depend on data-support scores.

Work Log

2026-04-21 21:55 PT — Slot 76 (MiniMax)

• Started: Task spec + AGENTS.md read
• Approach: Calibrated scoring from 5 dimensions:

- KG edge count (0-0.3): strong grounding gets 0.3, none gets 0
- Evidence citations (0-0.4): count + quality (high/medium/year ≥ 2020)
- Debate count (0-0.15): more scrutiny = higher score
- Analysis linkage (0-0.1): formal derivation from debate
- Artifact links (0-0.05): notebooks/datasets = computational grounding

• Output: scripts/score_data_support.py — reusable, well-documented
• Results:

- Before: 203 promoted/debated missing, 747 total missing
- 20 hypotheses scored: range 0.600–0.950
- After: 183 promoted/debated missing, 727 total missing
- All 20 scores verified in [0, 1] range

• Scores: h-var-95b0f9a6bc (0.950, MAPT), h-var-261452bfb4 (0.950, ACSL4), h-var-22c38d11cd (0.950, ACSL4), h-var-ce41f0efd7 (0.950, TREM2), h-var-97b18b880d (0.950, ALOX15), h-0e675a41 (0.950, HDAC3), h-42f50a4a (0.950, APOE), h-var-f96e38ec20 (0.950, ACSL4), h-11795af0 (0.900, APOE), h-856feb98 (0.900, BDNF), h-var-9e8fc8fd3d (0.900, PVALB), h-d0a564e8 (0.900, APOE), h-807d7a82 (0.900, AQP4), h-48858e2a (0.900, TREM2), h-43f72e21 (0.900, PRKAA1), h-3f02f222 (0.900, BCL2L1), h-var-e4cae9d286 (0.850, LPCAT3), h-var-c56b26facf (0.850, LPCAT3), h-9e9fee95 (0.700, HCRTR1/HCRTR2), hyp-SDA-2026-04-12-20260411-082446-2c1c9e2d-2 (0.600, CHRNA7/BACE1 — no KG edges)
• Committed: scripts/score_data_support.py [task:f7f4133c-4b99-48ef-888b-fa1b08387a24]
• Result: Done — 20 hypotheses scored with validated evidence-based rationales

2026-04-26 12:30 PT — Slot 73 (MiniMax)

• Started: AGENTS.md read, DB connection established via scidex.core.database.get_db()
• Approach: Same 5-dimension calibrated scoring (KG edges 0-0.3, citations 0-0.4, debates 0-0.15, analysis linkage 0-0.1, artifacts 0-0.05). Rebased against latest main (ea2945ab9) before running.
• Results:

- Before: 1294 hypotheses missing data_support_score
- 20 hypotheses scored: range 0.600–0.950
- After: 1274 missing (reduction of 20)
- Score distribution: low=16, mid=29, good=73, high=10 (of 128 total scored)
- All scores verified in [0, 1] range

• 20 scored hypotheses: h-var-70a95f9d57 (0.850, LPCAT3), hyp-SDA-2026-04-12-20260411-082446-2c1c9e2d-3 (0.600, CHRNA7/CHRM1), h-44195347 (0.900, APOE), h-b7898b79 (0.900, CLOCK), h-a20e0cbb (0.900, APOE), h-1a34778f (0.700, CGAS/STING1/DNASE2), h-fd1562a3 (0.900, COX4I1), h-d2722680 (0.900, TET2), h-seaad-v4-5a7a4079 (0.950, SIRT3), h-c8ccbee8 (0.900, AQP4), h-bb518928 (0.700, PLA2G6/PLA2G4A), h-7957bb2a (0.900, GPX4/SLC7A11), h-ec731b7a (0.900, G3BP1), h-84808267 (0.700, TFR1/LRP1/CAV1/ABCB1), h-a1b56d74 (0.900, HK2), h-98b431ba (0.900, TFAM), h-8fe389e8 (0.950, HDAC), h-99b4e2d2 (0.900, APOE), h-5706bbd7 (0.900, BMAL1), h-8d270062 (0.900, CACNA1G)
• Verification:

- All 20 scores between 0 and 1
- Missing count reduced from 1294 to 1274 (-20)
- Prior scored hypotheses (h-var-95b0f9a6bc, h-0e675a41, etc.) retained their scores

• Result: Done — 20 more hypotheses scored; no commit needed (DB-only change)

Tasks using this spec (7)

[Agora] Add data-support scores to 20 active hypotheses

[Agora] Add data-support scores to 20 active hypotheses

[Agora] Add data-support scores to 20 active hypotheses

[Agora] Score 20 unscored hypotheses with composite scoring

[Agora] Add data-support scores to 20 active hypotheses

[Agora] Add data-support scores to 20 active hypotheses

[Agora] Compute data-support scores for 20 active hypotheses

File: quest_engine_hypothesis_data_support_scoring_spec.md

Modified: 2026-04-26 05:25

Size: 4.4 KB